The future of groundwater

                                                                        

When assessing the suitability of groundwater use for agriculture, we must look at a range of factors including the resilience of the water resource to climate change.

According to IPCC, average temperatures in Africa are likely to increase in general, “annual mean air temperature between 2080 and 2099 is expected to be 3-4o C higher than it was between 1980 and 1999” (Calow 2009). Increased frequency of extreme events (droughts and floods) is expected. Changes in precipitation and evaporation will affect changes in moisture deficits, surface water runoff and hence have an effect on groundwater. It has been suggested by Taylor et al (2009), that a “shift toward more intensive precipitation enhances groundwater recharge”.  Given the high uncertainty in future surface water run-off, groundwater may become a strategic tool of adapting to fluctuations in fresh water supplies.

Thereby being resilient to climate change makes groundwater a sustainable resource and one which could be used to develop small holder irrigation, improving food security. However as discussed in the literature previously, for groundwater to be an effective solution, I believe more government involvement is required to address the issues of inequality, assisting with initial financing of small scale irrigation schemes in order to achieve a reliable source of water for use in agriculture. Finally, due to natural variability, a country by country analysis must be done in order to maximise the value of groundwater use in each case.

Overall groundwater has a high potential to contribute to resolving the water crisis in agricultural sector and achieve food security. Whether this potential is maximised however will depend on the decision making of government and other institutions.