When assessing the
suitability of groundwater use for agriculture, we must look at a range of
factors including the resilience of the water resource to climate change.
According to IPCC,
average temperatures in Africa are likely to increase in general, “annual mean
air temperature between 2080 and 2099 is expected to be 3-4o C higher than it
was between 1980 and 1999” (Calow 2009). Increased frequency of extreme events (droughts
and floods) is expected. Changes in precipitation and evaporation will affect
changes in moisture deficits, surface water runoff and hence have an effect on
groundwater. It has been suggested by Taylor et al (2009), that a “shift toward
more intensive precipitation enhances groundwater recharge”. Given the high uncertainty in future surface
water run-off, groundwater may become a strategic tool of adapting to
fluctuations in fresh water supplies.
Thereby being resilient to
climate change makes groundwater a sustainable resource and one which could be
used to develop small holder irrigation, improving food security. However as
discussed in the literature previously, for groundwater to be an effective
solution, I believe more government involvement is required to address the
issues of inequality, assisting with initial financing of small scale
irrigation schemes in order to achieve a reliable source of water for use in
agriculture. Finally, due to natural variability, a country by country analysis
must be done in order to maximise the value of groundwater use in each case.
Overall groundwater has
a high potential to contribute to resolving the water crisis in agricultural
sector and achieve food security. Whether this potential is maximised however
will depend on the decision making of government and other institutions.
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